Nevada’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped three-tenths of a percentage point to 14 percent in May. The increase not only sets a new all-time high for the State, it also means Nevada now carries the notable distinction of having the highest unemployment rate in the nation. Nevada surpassed Michigan, whose rate fell from 14 to 13.6 percent, in May. Michigan’s manufacturing based economy has been in decline for years, leaving the Wolverine state with the highest unemployment rate for 50 consecutive months – until now. In just three years, Nevada’s economy has fallen from one of the strongest performing to possibly the weakest. Since the start of the recession, in December 2007, the unemployment rate has increased 8.8 percentage points, the largest increase of any state in the nation. In May, Nevada’s unemployment rate was 4.3 percentage points higher than the national average.

Nevada’s employers added 4,800 jobs in May, but most of the increase was seasonal or temporary census hiring. The seasonal increase is an improvement over last year, when employers cut payrolls by 2,400 from April to May. Over the long term though, the increase is less than the 20 year average April to May increase of 7,600. On a positive note, over-the-year employment decline has moderated considerably. In May 2009, employment estimates were down 10.2 percent from the previous year. This May, over-the-year job loss is down just 2.8 percent.

All regional labor markets benefited from a seasonal increase and the addition of temporary census workers. Las Vegas-Paradise area employers added 3,000 jobs in May. While, employers in the Reno-Sparks area increased payrolls by 1,200, and Carson City employers added 100 jobs.

May’s job report brought a mixed bag of seasonal improvement and an unexpected decline in one industry. In preparation for seasonal tourism, employers in the leisure and hospitality sector added 1,300 jobs. Preliminary signs of a much anticipated up-tick in construction employment seem to be materializing with the addition of 500 new jobs. In a somewhat alarming reversal of recent trends, the education and health services sector lost 1,500 jobs. Most of the losses came from training providers in vocational and technical schools and small private practice medical and dental offices. In the public sector, state and local governments continue to shed jobs. New fiscal year budgets start July 1, and due to large budget shortfalls, public sector employment will continue to contract in the near future as previously announced layoffs go into effect. The federal government,

via the census, provided the lion’s share of this month’s employment increase, however these temporary positions are expected to end within months.

Unemployment in each region of the State declined in May, due to seasonal improvements. In the Las Vegas-Paradise area, the unemployment rate decreased from 14.2 to 14.1 percent. The unemployment rate in the Reno-Sparks region fell two-tenths to 13.3 percent. In Carson City, the unemployment rate fell to 13.2 percent from 13.5 percent the previous month. (Unemployment rates for the State’s metropolitan areas are not adjusted for seasonality. For comparison purposes, the State’s unadjusted unemployment rate was 13.8 percent in May, down from 14.0 percent in April.)

Nevada has been hit extremely hard as the recession has spread throughout the economy. In fact, the State’s jobless rate has increased to the point that it is the highest in the nation. During the early-2000s, Nevada’s unemployment rate was fairly similar to Michigan’s. However, by the middle part of the decade, the Silver State’s jobless rate was 2.6 percentage points below Michigan’s. In the last year, conditions have deteriorated markedly in Nevada, while Michigan has seen some improvement. In May 2009, Michigan’s unemployment rate was at a seasonally adjusted 13.6 percent, 2.1 points higher than Nevada’s. However, as of May 2010, Nevada’s rate has jumped 2.5 percentage points, while Michigan’s has begun to subside, falling from a peak of 14.5 percent in December to 13.6 percent. Clearly, with its historical reliance on gaming and construction as engines of growth, Nevada has been at the epicenter of the current economic downturn, as these two sectors have each felt the brunt of negative economic forces.

There are a number of factors contributing to the run-up in the State’s unemployment rate. However, looking at it in as straight-forward manner as possible, a couple of trends stand out. As the State’s employment base continues to erode, upward pressure is placed on joblessness. Household employment, which differs from the employer-based measure of employment which is typically the focus of our monthly analyses, has declined by more than five percent since the beginning of 2007 (Household employment is based on a survey households, while non-farm, or industrial employment is based on a survey of employers.) By itself, this accounts for some of the increase in joblessness. At the same time, the State’s labor force has continued to expand as the recession has unfolded, and more Nevadans have entered the job market looking for work. Specifically, the labor force has expanded by 5.5 percent since January 2007. In essence, there are more Nevadans in a labor market with fewer jobs.

Nevada’s mining region, centered in Elko County has fared relatively well compared to the rest of the State in the recession. High gold prices and resurgence in commodity prices has brought stability to the region’s mining-based economy. Gold recently sold at an all time high of $1,246 per ounce, and copper prices have rebounded despite the deep recession. Demand for copper from emerging economies such as China and India have pushed copper prices to near pre-recession levels at over $3 per pound. Though there has been some spillover from the downturn in the broader economy, the recession’s affect on the mining region has been comparatively mild. For instance, Elko County’s unemployment reading in May is 5.5 percentage points lower than the Statewide average, 13.8 percent (not-seasonally adjusted.) Taxable sales figures, a gauge of economic activity and consumer sentiment have held up pretty well in Elko compared to the rest of the State. In calendar year 2009, taxable sales were down just five percent over-the-year, while Statewide taxable sales were down 17 percent. Employment has held up well, too. From the start of the recession through September 2009 (the most recent figure available), employment fell by just 620 jobs, a three percent decline, compared to a Statewide drop of 159,900 or 14 percent over the same time frame. While things look positive now for Nevada’s miners, it’s important to note that gold prices tend to run counter cyclical to the business cycle and have seen many ups and downs in the past. With a national economic recovery likely, gold prices are bound to decline in the years ahead.

April 2010 produced the largest job gain in the United States in four years!!!  That is great news on the national front. 

So how did th unemployment level increase from 9.7 to 9.9% at the same time?  Those that had given up on their job search are now searching again. What??? More proof that we do not count our unemployed properly.  So what actually is the national unemployment rate?  Your guess is as good as mine.  High….that’s all I know.  Too high.  And Nevada’s is much worse.  We need to place people in more Nevada jobs.

The SHRM LINE® Employment Expectations Report for May 2010 has been released.

Key findings:

• Hiring rates in May will reach levels not seen in almost three years.
• Good workers are getting slightly harder to find.
• New-hire compensation continues to increase in April.

Please Click Here for More Details.

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) Leading Indicators of National Employment® or LINE® Report is based on a monthly survey of over 1000 HR professionals in the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors. It reports on monthly changes in employment expectations, recruiting difficulty and new-hire compensation.

Nevada’s unemployment rate hit a new record high at 13.4 percent in March, still above the national rate of 9.7 percent, announced Bill Anderson, chief economist for the Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.

That means 186,900 Nevadans are unemployed. The state lost 4,300 jobs during the month of March, most of which were in the construction sector, Anderson said.

Unemployment in the State’s regional labor markets improved slightly in March. In the Las Vegas-Paradise area, the unemployment rate declined by one-tenth of a percentage point to 13.8 percent, as the number of unemployed fell by 1,400 to 136,000. The unemployment rate in the Reno-Sparks area pulled back two-tenths of a percentage point from an all time high to 13.2 percent. The unemployment rate in the state’s capitol region declined from 13.7 to 13.3 percent. (Unemployment rates for the State’s metropolitan areas are not adjusted for seasonality. For comparison purposes, the State’s unadjusted unemployment rate was 13.6 percent in March, down from 13.7 percent in February.)

The national economic tide appears to be reversing, but expectations for future growth remain foggy. Improvements in a number of key economic indicators, such as gross domestic product, worker productivity and investor sentiment has some predicting the end of the recession. The surge in economic activity is finally beginning to trickle into the labor market. In March, national employment increased by 162,000 over the previous month, the largest gain in three years, and the third advance in the last five months. Despite these significant improvements, the official end of the worst recession since the Great Depression remains in doubt. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the entity responsible for marking turning points in the economy, is reluctant to mark the end of the recession due high unemployment and its potential affect on demand for new goods and services. The national unemployment rate remains elevated at 9.7 percent, and will likely stay high for the foreseeable future. Given high unemployment and fear of a double-dip recession, the viability of an economic expansion will remain tenuous in the months ahead.

Nevada, in the meantime, continues on a turbulent path towards the bottom of the business cycle. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked up two-tenths of a percent to 13.4 percent, marking a new record high. In March, 186,900 Nevadans were unemployed and looking for work. On the employment side, February’s positive employment reading proved to be unsustainable. Employers shed 4,300 jobs in March, with most of the losses coming from the construction sector. Any real turnaround in Nevada depends on sustained growth in the national economy and improved consumer sentiment. Nevada’s economy will continue to bounce along the bottom without any real direction.

Typically, spring brings seasonal improvements in Nevada‘s labor markets as the weather warms up. This March though, improvements were less pronounced than in past years, resulting in divergent seasonal and non-seasonal unemployment rates. Unemployment in the State’s regional labor markets improved slightly in March. In the Las Vegas-Paradise area, the unemployment rate declined by one-tenth of a percentage point to 13.8 percent, as the number of unemployed fell by 1,400 to 136,000. The unemployment rate in the Reno-Sparks area pulled back two-tenths of a percentage point from an all time high to 13.2 percent. The unemployment rate in the State’s capitol region declined from 13.7 to 13.3 percent. (Unemployment rates for the State’s metropolitan areas are not adjusted for seasonality. For comparison purposes, the State’s unadjusted unemployment rate was 13.6 percent in March, down from 13.7 percent in February.)

Results of the employer survey suggest Nevada’s businesses are still struggling to find their footing. On the heels of improvement in February, the loss of 4,300 jobs in March is disappointing, but indicative of the turbulence expected as the economy looks for direction. Industries suffering the largest over-the-month contractions include construction and professional and business services. The construction industry shed 4,000 jobs, and professional and business services trimmed 3,700 jobs. Loses were offset by modest gains of 1,800 jobs in the leisure and hospitality industry and a gain of 1,100 in trade, transportation and utilities. Pubic sector employment benefited from the addition of roughly 400 temporary federal workers hired to run the decennial census. The U.S. Census Bureau plans to hire roughly 4,800 workers in total, and though the jobs are temporary, they will provide needed employment for many Nevadans throughout the summer.

By region, jobs losses were uneven in March. The Las Vegas-Paradise MSA shed 4,500 jobs from February to March, while over-the-year employment is down 47,700, a loss of 5.7 percent. In the Reno- Sparks area, employers shed 300 jobs since February and 6,300 over the last year, a loss of 3.2 percent. Of Nevada’s three metro areas, only Carson City added employment. Carson City employers added 300 jobs, but overall employment is down 1,000 from a year earlier, or 3.3 percent.

Employment and unemployment trends are still negative on a year-over year basis, but the rate of decline has moderated significantly in recent months. In August 2009, year-over-year employment declines peaked at 133,200. In March, the difference from a year earlier is down to 50,100. The year-over-year comparison of Nevada’s unadjusted unemployment rate is improving as well. Over-the-year changes peaked at 5.7 percentage points in June 2009, when the unemployment rate increased from 6.4 percent to 12.1 percent. In March, the unemployment rate is just 2.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier. If the gap between 2009 and 2010 continues to shrink at its current pace, over-the-year employment growth should take hold towards the end of this year. If that happens, the unemployment rate will begin to decline on an over-the year basis, as well.

As an aside, the Quarterly Workforce Indicators are a unique set of eight economic measures derived from the Local Employment Dynamics program (a collaboration between the Research and Analysis Bureau and U.S. Census Bureau.) The innovative system merges existing information to provide local workforce statistics on employment, measures of change such as job flow, new hires, and separations, and average earnings. The information is available by industry and county on a historical basis, and is useful for analyzing churn in the labor market, as well as structural changes in demographics. For instance, analyses of demographic changes over time reveals that women are playing a more prominent role in the labor market. From 1999 to 2009, the proportion of women in Nevada’s workforce has increased from 46 to 48 percent. The average monthly earnings for women have increased by $747 over that time, though women still earn nearly $1,100 less per month than men. Also, an analysis of demographics by age shows that Clark County’s labor force is getting older. From 1999 to 2009, the proportion of workers age 14-34 has fallen three percentage points, while workers 35 and older increased by the same amount. All of the Quarterly Workforce Indicators are available on the Research and Analysis Bureau’s website at www.nevadaworkforce.com and will play an increasingly important role as we continue to assess economic conditions in Nevada.

The SHRM LINE® Employment Expectations Report for April 2010 was just released.  The LINE Employment Report examines four key areas: employers’ hiring expectations, new-hire compensation, difficulty in recruiting top-level talent and job vacancies. It is based on a monthly survey of private-sector human resource professionals at more than 500 manufacturing and 500 service- sector companies. Together, these two sectors employ more than 90 percent of the nation’s private sector workers. 

According to the April report, all indicators show we are in a recovery.  Here are some of the key findings:

• For sixth month in a row, hiring is up on an annual basis in April
• Recruiting difficulty continues to increase in March
• New-hire compensation makes a slight rise in March

To download a complete copy of the report, visit here. 

However, Nevada continues to lose jobs in Las Vegas almost daily.  As we typically are the last ones into a recession and the first ones out, this time we will more than likely be the last to recover.

Nevada’s unemployment rate rose to 13.2 percent in February. The 13.2 percent equates to 189,000 workers out of work in Nevada. However, employers did add 10,400 jobs over the month, which was the first increase since October 2009, said Bill Anderson, chief economist with the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation.

Las Vegas-Paradise picked up most of job growth with an increase of 7,400. Reno-Sparks added 1,600 jobs and Carson City 100. Job growth by industry was widespread, though a good portion of the growth, 3,900, was in state government, which corresponded to the start of the spring semester at the State’s higher education institutions. Other improving sectors include leisure and hospitality (+2,700), professional and business services (+2,200), and education and health services (+1,800). Gains were partially offset by losses in trade, transportation and utilities and financial activities, which fell by 800 and 300 jobs, respectively.

The Las Vegas-Paradise unemployment rate increased from 13.8 to 13.9 percent. The unemployment rate in Reno-Sparks held steady at 13.4 percent, and the Carson City MSA experienced a decline in its unemployment rate, falling from 13.8 percent to 13.7 percent. (Unemployment rates for the State’s metropolitan areas are not adjusted for seasonality. For comparison purposes, the State’s unadjusted unemployment rate was 13.7 percent in February.)

The Unemployment Conundrum from Karla Porter

Would you believe that in January of this year there were just about enough jobs available in the US to employ every infant, child and adult in Chicago, the 3rd largest city with a population of just under 3,000,000?

Depending on your situation, it could be cause for merriment and celebration and send you lunging for your résumé, or feelings of inadequacy for not being able to find one of them despite your relentless search. In either case, it would at least leave you with a glimmer of hope that recovery is well under way, right?

Actually, it’s not really very exciting news at all. Despite the worst recession in the past 30 years, the number of available jobs in the U.S. has remained fairly steady with roughly 2.7 million jobs available for the past 12 months.

So, what’s the deal? How can there be so many available jobs with employment at 9.7 percent?

Apart from the 1.2 million discouraged workers not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them, here’s a thought from Jonas Prising, President of Manpower North America, “From our research it is clear that across the country employers are experiencing a mismatch between the talent their businesses need and the skills and abilities potential employees possess.”

Talent and opportunity don’t always match up logistically. Some companies do poor labor pool research during the site selection process. Others are not willing to source talent nationally or pay for relocation. Some companies have unbecoming reputations and no one wants to work there. Other jobs have such high turnover companies never take the postings for them off the job boards.

Many of the available jobs are for high demand hard to fill positions like engineers, engineering technicians, accountants, mechanics and IT staff. We simply do not have enough people trained in these occupations to fill the need. Maybe not enough people are interested in these careers?

On the other hand, occupations with the most openings are cashiers, retail salespersons, waiters and waitresses, customer service representatives and registered nurses. Without doubt these are grueling, stand on your feet, people in your face, physical jobs. With the exception of nursing, they are not generally well paid occupations. They’re burn and churn jobs, the kinds that never fall off job boards.

Sometimes due to personal circumstances no matter how much you would like to interview for the bank teller position in that small town in the Flickertail State, the salary doesn’t justify consideration of trying to sell your home in New Jersey in a flat real estate market and leaving the people you love, even though the cost of living would be less there.

Nevada’s unemployment rate remained at 13 percent for the month of January from December.

“As usual, in January, employers made seasonal cuts to employment, though this year’s decline was not as drastic as last year’s,” said William Anderson, chief economist for Nevada Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation (DETR). “In January 2009, job losses broke from long-term trend when employers cut 40,300 jobs in response to both seasonal and recessionary pressures. This year’s job loss is more in line with typical seasonal layoffs.”

Nevada employers shed 25,300 jobs, just 450 more than the average decline over the past ten years. In response, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 13.0 percent, with an estimated 187,700 Nevadans unemployed and actively seeking work, Anderson said.

Unemployment in the state’s metropolitan areas increased, largely due to seasonal forces. The unemployment rate in the state’s largest metropolitan area, Las Vegas, increased eight-tenths of a percent to 13.8 percent. The unemployment rate in the Reno-Sparks and Carson City areas increased one full percentage point each to 13.5 percent and 13.8 percent, respectively. (Unemployment rates for the state’s metropolitan areas are not adjusted for seasonality. For comparison purposes, the state’s unadjusted unemployment rate was 13.7 percent in January.)

Industry employment trends followed their typical seasonal pattern. The elimination of temporary holiday positions caused statewide retail trade employment to fall by 4,600 from December to January, Anderson said. The over the month change was the smallest during the past ten years, as fewer workers were needed to staff the state’s retail establishments. State government decreased 5,100 in response to the break the university system takes between semesters. Construction employment, which traditionally shrinks in January due to weather conditions, was down 3,200. Overall, the year-over-year employment decrease of 6.2 percent still shows significant job loss and aligns with the expectation that Nevada employers will struggle to maintain job levels in the year ahead.

In keeping with the statewide trend, total non-farm employment in all three metropolitan statistical areas showed decreased employment levels. The magnitude of these over the month changes were not outside pre-recession patterns, but were significant none-the-less in light of an already struggling workforce. The area lost 17,100 Las Vegas jobs, Reno- Sparks lost 7,100, and Carson City lost 900.

On a percentage basis, this year’s benchmark (our annual revision process) of Nevada’s 2009 employment was the largest in the history of the Current Employment Statistics program, Anderson said. The new employment levels show that Nevada lost 39,000 more jobs in 2009 than originally estimated. Instead of losing 76,100 jobs from 2008 to 2009, Nevada actually lost 115,100 jobs, or 9.1 percent. Nevada’s private sector lost 38,800 more jobs than originally estimated, resulting in a 10.1 percent loss over-the-year.

“The large variation is directly attributable to known shortcomings in the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s (BLS) methodology,” Anderson said. “By limiting local analyst input, relying on weak sample response and applying inflated business birth-death factors, the estimate process failed to gauge the true extent of the employment downturn.”

Anderson said based on results from the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS) (a monthly Census Bureau survey encompassing approximately 50,000 households in the nation, about 1,000 of which are in Nevada) the recession continues to impact Nevada’s population differently based on demographics.

“Due to the nature of the recession, particularly the negative effect on the construction sector, a traditionally male dominated industry, some have come to term the downturn as a “mancession,” Anderson said. “The CPS numbers appear to bear this out. The unemployment rate for the state’s male population averaged about 13.4 percent in the 12 months ending in January. The female unemployment rate over the same period is 9.4 percent, a four percentage point difference. Just one year ago, the male and female unemployment rates were roughly equal.”

Race and ethnicity also appears to affect the likelihood that an individual is unemployed.  The unemployment rate for the state’s Black population was 18.2 percent on average in the 12 months ending in January. The unemployment rate for the state’s Hispanic population was roughly 17.0 percent, and the unemployment rate for the state’s White population was 11.4 percent over the same period.

DETR recently released new wage information for the third quarter of 2009. Analyses of recent trends highlight the disparate effects the recession has had on Nevada’s industry sectors. At the height of the business cycle (third quarter 2006), Nevadans were averaging $751 per week. The figure grew by $58 per week in 2008, but fell by $4 per week to $805 over the year in the third quarter of 2009. By industry, over-the-year changes were mixed. The biggest improvement came in the natural resources and mining industry where wages grew by $59 per week. Improvements were also seen in the education and health services sector, up $21 per week and the manufacturing and public administration sectors, where average weekly wages were $18 per week higher in 2009:QIII than in 2008:QIII.

Conversely, declining sectors include leisure and hospitality where average weekly wage fell $15, followed by financial activities, down $11 per week, and trade, transportation and utilities whose average weekly wage fell by $4 per week. Despite the over-the-year losses, average weekly wages across all industries are still $54 higher than the third quarter of 2006. The only industry with lower wages in 2009 than in 2006 is the financial activities sector where wages have fallen by $3 per week since the height of the business cycle.

According to The Conference Board:

Online advertised vacancies slipped 66,900 to 3,957,000 in February, according to The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine™ (HWOL) Data Series released today. The February dip follows a large increase of almost 750,000 in the previous three-month period. Recent declines in the number of unemployed (labor supply) coupled with the rise in the number of advertised vacancies (labor demand) has narrowed the gap between labor supply and labor demand by 1,500,000, and in January, the latest month of unemployment numbers, there were 10.8 million or 3.69 unemployed for every online advertised vacancy…….read more

Another report published by CareerCast.com/JobSerf found positive news….there was an increase in Managerial Openings in February 2010.  This is typically an indicator to future increased hiring as managers are put in place first.

I am not certain how this will ultimately impact Las Vegas and Nevada employment.  Typically, we are the first to rebound from an economic slowdown.  That clearly has not been the case with this recession.  We have lost tens of thousands of Las Vegas jobs over the past 18 months. 

Thanks to Toby at JobDig for this chart.